Global markets Nov 4 2026: RBA hikes, oil whipsaws

1. RBA RAISES CASH RATE TO 18-YEAR HIGH
Event: The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85%, the highest in 18 years, in a 6-3 vote. Context/impact: This was the RBA's fifth increase in 2026, driven by a materially higher inflation outlook; AUD/USD fell 0.48% to 0.6964, adding pressure on Australian borrowers.

2. CHINA RAISES FX RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO
Event: The People's Bank of China will raise the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 2 percentage points, from 4% to 6%, effective 15 November 2026. Context/impact: It is the first such increase since December 2021 and aims to manage FX liquidity and steady the yuan. Governor Pan Gongsheng pledged stable stock, bond and FX markets; the PBOC also conducted a 100 billion yuan swap facility for securities, funds and insurers at a 10 basis point fee.

3. US MIDTERMS: EARLY RESULTS DRAW ATTENTION
Event: The US midterm elections were held on 3 November; early results from Kentucky's KY-06 showed relatively weak Republican numbers. Context/impact: Polymarket put the chance of Democrats winning both chambers at 76%, though this is not an official result. Investors await further counting to assess fiscal and trade policy risks.

4. US-IRAN REVIEW PROPOSALS; ISRAEL AID IN FOCUS
Event: The US and Iran are reviewing new mediator proposals to avoid a return to all-out war; Qatar expects feedback within two days. Iran said there is no new progress and it will not accept diplomacy based on coercion, while President Trump said the US has no immediate plans to strike Iran. Context/impact: Separately, Trump said he agreed with Prime Minister Netanyahu to cut about USD 4 billion in annual US military aid to Israel by year-end, according to some sources. Conflicting signals added to Middle East uncertainty and oil price swings.

5. US EQUITIES MIXED; AMD RISES AFTER EARNINGS
Event: The S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 7,569; the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.83% to 25,372; the Dow Jones fell 0.38% to 51,787. AMD posted Q3 revenue of USD 13.38 billion, up 45% year over year, with data center revenue up 97%; Q4 revenue was guided to about USD 17 billion. Context/impact: AMD shares rose 7-9% after hours. Apple fell 1.9% after a mixed outlook in its first quarterly report under CEO John Ternus; Shopify missed revenue estimates for the first time since 2022 and fell 8%; Meta drew up to USD 58 billion in orders for a USD 15 billion bond sale to fund AI infrastructure.

6. OIL WHIPSAWS, METALS UNDER PRESSURE
Event: January Brent briefly fell 3% to around USD 101.55 before paring to USD 103.60-104.50; December WTI settled near USD 96. Spot gold fell 0.4-0.6% to around USD 3,923-3,930 per ounce. Context/impact: The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 5.1 basis points to 4.966%, pressuring metals; LME copper fell 2.2% to USD 14,036 per tonne, a seven-week low. US gasoline and diesel hit record Election Day highs of USD 4.14 and USD 6.29 per gallon, per AAA.

7. ASIA AND VIETNAM DIVERGED
Event: Nikkei 225 opened 0.17% lower at 62,973.16; KOSPI gained 2.4% to 5,786.13. Vietnam's VN-Index fell 0.65% to 1,699.62 on 3 November, its fourth straight loss. Context/impact: SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics rose 4.8% and 3.6%, leading KOSPI. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.82% to 3,608 with turnover above 1.7 trillion yuan; the Hang Seng rose 0.57% to 23,525.97.

8. US LABOR DATA AND EVENT CALENDAR
Event: US September JOLTS job openings rose to 7.5 million, a four-month high; factory orders were strong. Bitcoin traded around USD 77,801, up 1.43%. Context/impact: A still-firm labor market may make the Fed more cautious on easing. US-listed bitcoin ETFs lost more than USD 1 billion over two sessions amid the Binance hack and midterm uncertainty. On 4 November, markets await ADP employment, ISM services, EIA oil data and Qualcomm earnings.

What to watch today: US ADP employment, ISM services PMI, EIA crude inventories and Qualcomm earnings.
*Information is compiled from multiple sources for reference at the time of publication.*