Wall Street rebounds, oil cools after Iran-Gulf talks on September 11, 2026

1. US STOCKS REBOUND AFTER FOUR LOSING SESSIONS
Wall Street closed higher on September 11, 2026, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 509.19 points (+0.98%) to 52,573.29; the S&P 500 up 0.86% to 7,656.98; and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.86–0.96% to 26,333.04. The recovery followed broadly in-line August CPI data and oil pulling back from above $100 a barrel. For the week, however, the Dow still lost 1.57%, its worst weekly drop since March; the S&P 500 fell 0.8%; and the Nasdaq slipped 0.16%.

2. US INFLATION MATCHES FORECAST; FED HIKE BETS RISE
August CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, in line with the 0.4% consensus and up from 0.1% in July; year-on-year CPI rose 3.4%. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, above the 0.2% expected. After the release, CME FedWatch put the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase at the September 15-16 meeting at roughly 85.6-88%, up from about 69-70% before. The 10-year Treasury yield traded above 4.97%, the highest since October 2023; the University of Michigan preliminary September consumer sentiment fell to 47.8 from 51.7.

3. OIL PULLS BACK ON TALK OF IRAN-GULF MEETING; WEEKLY GAINS REMAIN LARGE
On September 10, October WTI rose $6.43 (+6.69%) to $102.48 a barrel; November Brent rose $6.42 to $107.63, both at their highest since May 19. On September 11, WTI fell about 1.8-3.5% to around $98.9-100.65 and Brent fell about 2.5% to around $104.9-105 after Iranian state media said Tehran would meet Gulf states in Oman to discuss the Strait of Hormuz. Both benchmarks were still on track for a weekly gain of around 13%. Saudi Arabia shut its East-West Pipeline as a precaution after attacks in the Riyadh and Madinah regions; the line moves about 5 million barrels per day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

4. GOLD, SILVER AND BASE METALS UNDER PRESSURE
Spot gold fell 1.9% to about $4,316.63 per ounce, the lowest since early August; December COMEX gold closed at $4,391.30, down $16.00. Silver fell 5.5% to around $63.40-63.60 per ounce. LME copper dropped about 3-4% to around $14,182-14,330 a ton after Reuters reported Washington's plan to impose a tariff on copper imports has stalled; LME zinc fell about 4.9%. Higher oil prices and US inflation data reinforced the case for a Fed rate increase.

5. IMF: GLOBAL ECONOMY RESILIENT, BUT UNCERTAINTY HIGH
The IMF said on September 10 that the global economy has weathered the US-Iran energy shock “better than feared” after six months of war. Spokesperson Julie Kozack said two opposing forces are at play: a negative supply shock from energy and commodity prices, and a positive demand shock from the AI-driven technology cycle. Key risks include a persistent energy shock, rising public debt and stalled disinflation.

6. EUROPEAN MARKETS FALL; UK GDP BEATS FORECASTS
On September 10, Germany's DAX fell 0.68% to 25,380.37; the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.56% to 10,609.99; France's CAC 40 fell 0.49% to 8,116.76; and the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.63% to 6,271.65. UK GDP rose 0.4% month-on-month in July, beating the 0.0% consensus and marking the strongest annual growth since February 2025. Asian markets were broadly lower on September 11, with Japan and South Korea losing around 2% intraday.

7. GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS: HOUTHI FORCES REACH PERIM ISLAND
Reuters reported that Iran-backed Houthi forces reached the island of Perim in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 11; a day earlier, they took control of Yemen's Mokha port. Perim sits on a key shipping chokepoint, potentially increasing maritime supply risks. Tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz have also intensified, and a GCC meeting is expected on Monday. The reported Iran-Gulf meeting in Oman has not been officially confirmed.

Key thing to watch today: A possible Iran-Gulf meeting on the Strait of Hormuz in Oman, which could set the near-term direction for oil prices.

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