Oil surges, equities under pressure on 14/09/2026

1. OIL SURGES AFTER SUPPLY DISRUPTION
Brent and WTI both rose about 3%. Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline, estimated at 4–5% of global supply, after drone attacks; Houthi forces also reportedly tightened control around the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint. Brent at one point rose 4.7% to near 109.50 USD/bbl, while WTI traded around 104.30 USD/bbl, a four-month high. Shanghai crude jumped 11.71% to 904.7 yuan/barrel. A planned Iran-Gulf meeting on Strait of Hormuz arrangements in Oman on 15/09 was postponed indefinitely due to lack of consensus.

2. EQUITIES FALL, TECH SHARES UNDER PRESSURE
DAX fell 0.4%, CAC 40 fell 0.6%. S&P 500 futures dropped 0.6% and Nasdaq futures declined 1.5% on AI safety worries and hawkish Fed bets; the previous session saw the Dow rise 0.98% to 52,573.29, the S&P 500 gain 0.86% to 7,656.98, and the Nasdaq add 0.96% to 26,333.04. Oracle beat Q2 profit and revenue forecasts but its shares fell, dragging AI-related names; Anthropic reportedly posted a second profitable quarter ahead of an expected October IPO, with Nvidia potentially anchoring a 10bn USD investment.

3. US CPI TOPS FORECAST, CENTRAL BANKS IN FOCUS
Core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in August. Headline CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year; University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 47.8 and one-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%. CME FedWatch showed more than 88% odds of a 25bp Fed hike on 16/09, with the 10-year Treasury yield around 4.98%; Standard Bank expected rates unchanged and some strategist notes cited 60–70% hike odds. The BOE is expected to hold at 3.75% on Thursday, the BOJ is expected to hike 25bp to 1.25% on Friday; the ECB raised 25bp last week, its second hike this year.

4. GLOBAL ECONOMIC DATA MIXED
UK July GDP rose 0.4% month-on-month. Japan's corporate goods prices rose 7.6% year-on-year and yen-based import prices rose 24.8%; France cut its 2026 growth forecast from 0.7% to 0.5%, the third downgrade this year. Russia's central bank held its key rate at 14%, its first pause since April last year.

5. METALS, CRYPTO AND GRAINS MOVE LOWER
SHFE tin fell 3.81% to below 400,000 yuan/tonne. Lead fell 2.07%, zinc 1.94%, nickel 1.55%; COMEX gold declined 1.02% to around 4,293–4,329 USD/oz, silver fell 1.52%. Bitcoin traded around 76,700–77,759 USD, initially bucking the equity trend before turning lower. UK feed wheat futures fell 1.3% on the week to 209.75 GBP/t; the USDA raised world wheat ending stocks by 3.0 Mt to 276.3 Mt, cut the US maize crop to 401.3 Mt, and unexpectedly raised the US soybean crop to 123.4 Mt.

6. CURRENCIES AND NOTABLE STATEMENTS
DXY rose about 0.5% to above 99.6. USD/JPY rose 0.6% to 154.55; EUR/USD fell 0.4% to 1.1545; the South African rand traded at 16.18 per USD. President Donald Trump repeated a pledge to send 5,000 USD to every US adult if Republicans keep Congress in November's midterms. According to Tatton Investment Management, a Trump-Xi summit is planned for 24/09 in Washington; China still buys about 90% of Iran's oil. Canada's trade minister said there are no formal US-Canada trade negotiations, but communication channels remain open.

What to watch today: Oil price movements in Brent/WTI and US equity futures after the Saudi supply disruption.
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