US CPI keeps Fed rate hike in focus on September 12, 2026

1. US CPI RISES AS EXPECTED, CORE INFLATION RUNS HOTTER
Event: The U.S. August consumer price index rose 3.4% year-over-year, matching forecasts; core CPI increased 0.3% month-over-month, above the 0.2% consensus. Interest-rate swaps then priced about a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its September 15-16 meeting.
Context/impact: Hotter core inflation reinforces the case for Fed tightening; investors are now focused on what signal the central bank sends after its first rate hike in three years.

2. FED HIKE EXPECTATIONS BROADEN ACROSS MARKETS
Event: Journalist Nick Timiraos wrote that investors largely expect the Fed to lift rates next week, but the bigger uncertainty is the path after that; markets are pricing at least three cumulative hikes by June 2027. Citigroup expects the Fed to hike in September and not cut rates until mid-2027.
Context/impact: A single 25-basis-point increase is seen as unlikely to curb inflation, putting pressure on bond yields and equity valuations.

3. US CONSUMER SENTIMENT DROPS; INFLATION EXPECTATIONS JUMP
Event: The University of Michigan preliminary September consumer sentiment index fell for a second straight month to 47.8; one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6% from 4.0%, the highest since June.
Context/impact: Consumers are more pessimistic about living costs, which may make the Fed more wary of persistent inflation risks.

4. OIL PRICES PULL BACK FRIDAY BUT POST STRONG WEEKLY GAINS
Event: WTI October futures fell 2.37% to $100.05 a barrel; Brent November futures dropped 2.81% to $104.61. For the week, WTI rose nearly 10% and Brent gained about 8.6-8.7%. Saudi Arabia shut the East-West crude pipeline as a precaution after repeated attacks; Houthi forces seized the Red Sea port of Mokha, and Iran said it would discuss commercial shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz in Oman on September 14.
Context/impact: Middle East supply risks remain elevated even as oil cooled in the session; the IEA warned that global supply disruptions are forcing demand destruction.

5. US STOCKS REBOUND AFTER FOUR-DAY LOSING STREAK
Event: The Dow Jones rose 0.98% to 52,573.29; the S&P 500 gained 0.86% to 7,656.98; the Nasdaq Composite added 0.96% to 26,333.04. Dell jumped more than 11% and Super Micro Computer more than 7%. For the week, the Dow fell 1.57%, the S&P 500 lost 0.58% and the Nasdaq shed 0.66%.
Context/impact: The late-week bounce suggests investors paused selling after the streak, but rate concerns remain a major pressure on tech valuations.

6. GOLD EDGES UP; GOLDMAN KEEPS BULLISH FORECAST
Event: Spot gold rose about 0.7% to around $4,348-4,349 an ounce, though it fell about 1.85% for the week; spot silver gained about 1.4% to around $64.44-64.50. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2026 gold forecast at $4,900 an ounce, seeing net upside risk.
Context/impact: Safe-haven demand has returned amid geopolitical tension and rate uncertainty; Goldman's outlook reinforces the view that gold may have more room to rise.

7. AGRICULTURE AND BASE METALS MIXED
Event: Vietnam coffee prices fell across the board on September 12 as new-crop supply hit the market; domestic coffee dropped 500 VND/kg to about 94,700 VND/kg. On the LME, copper was roughly flat at $14,240/tonne; aluminium and nickel both fell 1.2% to $3,253 and $16,469, respectively.
Context/impact: El Niño is disrupting agricultural supply and lifting futures, while base metals face pressure from the dollar and growth concerns.

8. BIG TECH COMPANIES ANNOUNCE NEW PLANS
Event: Apple opened pre-orders for iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max from 5:00 a.m. Pacific Time on September 12. Oracle will spend an additional $700 million on its restructuring plan; Tesla said its Semi electric truck is entering the European market; SpaceX plans to deploy its first V3 Starlink satellites on a Starship test flight as early as next week.
Context/impact: The moves show large technology companies still expanding products and investment despite a high-rate environment; Apple and Tesla are seeking new growth drivers.

What to watch today: The Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting and Strait of Hormuz shipping talks in Oman on September 14.
*Information is compiled for reference only and reflects multiple sources at the time of posting.*