Hormuz tensions shadow global markets on September 28, 2026

FINANCIAL MARKETS

1. US STOCKS ROSE LATE LAST WEEK FUTURES DIP MONDAY.
- On Friday, the Dow Jones rose 0.93% to 51,828.62, the S&P 500 added 0.51% to 7,743.41, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.48% to 27,068.72; Europe's Stoxx 600 rose 0.35%. On September 28 morning, US and European futures slipped: Dow futures -0.30%, S&P 500 futures -0.29%, Nasdaq 100 futures -0.33%, after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Context: geopolitical risk is returning as a market driver after a positive week.

2. GLOBAL BOND YIELDS TOP 4% FIRST TIME SINCE 2007.
- The 10-year US Treasury yield eased to 5.156% but still rose about 16 basis points on the week; the average global aggregate bond yield crossed 4% for the first time since 2007. The yen strengthened after Japanese and US officials signaled concern over yen weakness: USD/JPY fell 0.99% to 157.2865, while DXY slipped 0.21% to 101.03. Context: higher borrowing costs may weigh on corporate earnings and risk assets.

3. OIL REBOUNDS GOLD SLIPS ON SEPTEMBER 28.
- WTI settled Friday down 2.29% at $92.44 a barrel, Brent down 2.59% at $97.62, but on September 28 morning WTI added 1.25% to $93.60 and Brent rose 1.41% to $98.81 after the Iran offer was rejected. Spot gold fell about 0.6% to $4,259.55 an ounce. Context: oil is sensitive to Hormuz headlines, while gold faces pressure from rising global yields.

GEOPOLITICS

4. US-IRAN TENSIONS ESCALATE OVER STRAIT OF HORMUZ.
- President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the strait, said negotiations could resume this week, and is considering very seriously a diesel export ban and always considering military action. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said reopening depends on Iran's conditions, that Iran will not compromise, and is prepared to return to war but has not abandoned diplomacy. According to some sources, vessel traffic fell to single digits; Iran's IRGC navy said it captured a US Remus-600 underwater vehicle. Context: disruption of a critical oil shipping lane could raise energy prices, though some reports remain unconfirmed.

5. US-CHINA EIGHT-POINT CONSENSUS PWC SETTLES EVERGRANDE CASE.
- During President Xi's state visit, China and the US reached an eight-point consensus, including a trade council mechanism, a $30 billion reciprocal tariff-reduction arrangement, an AI dialogue, and agreement that Iran should not develop nuclear weapons. In Hong Kong, the SFC settled with PwC over Evergrande audit failures: PwC will pay HK$1 billion without admitting liability, and the funds cannot be used to repay Evergrande creditors. Context: the trade arrangement may ease US-China friction, while the PwC settlement partly closes a contentious audit case.

MACRO AND TECHNOLOGY

6. US ECONOMY MIXED FED LEANS TOWARD HIKE.
- The University of Michigan final September consumer sentiment fell to 48.1, a four-month low, while one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6%; the US 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.03%, the first time above 7% since January 2025. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25bp Fed hike in October is 64.8%, versus 35.2% for a hold. Context: soft consumer data and high borrowing costs contrast with market pricing that favors further tightening amid inflation concerns.

7. AI DRAWS RECORD CAPITAL AS RISKS MOUNT.
- The IMF warned global private AI investment may exceed $2 trillion this year, but debt-driven projects could trigger asset repricing and layoffs if returns disappoint. Meta shares rose about 36% in September, but Meta lost a New Mexico privacy case and could face up to $219 billion in civil fines; OpenAI paused training of its latest model after a safety alert. Context: the AI boom is inflating valuations alongside legal, technical, and funding risks.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY: Oil price reaction and any signal on renewed US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz.

*Information is aggregated for reference and reflects multiple sources at the time of publication.*