Oil and US yields surge on September 25, 2026

1. WALL STREET MIXED AS META GAINS, MGM SLIDES
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 161.61 points, or 0.31%, to 51,349.98; the S&P 500 slipped 1.90 points, or 0.02%, to 7,704.13; the Nasdaq Composite added 3.34 points, or 0.01%, to 26,939.37. Meta climbed 4.50% on its Muse AI assistant; Oracle dropped 3.47% after sending a force majeure notice related to its New Mexico data center project; Intel and AMD rose about 3% each; MGM Resorts fell 11% after Barry Diller's People Inc withdrew its USD18bn buyout proposal.

2. US BOND YIELDS HIT MULTI-YEAR HIGHS
The 10-year Treasury yield closed around 5.207%, the highest since June 2007, after breaking above 5.20% late in the New York session. The 30-year yield reached about 5.46-5.48%, the highest since 2004, and briefly breached 5.50%. The USD44bn 7-year auction priced at 5.085%, the first 7-year sale above 5% since the 2009 reintroduction. Japan's 10-year JGB yield rose to 3.075%, the highest since 1996, while Germany's 10-year bund hit about 3.588%, the highest since 2009.

3. FED AND RBA SIGNAL MORE TIGHTENING
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that inflation risks are tilted to the upside; New York Fed President John Williams said another year-end rate increase is reasonable; Philadelphia Fed President Paulson said additional moderate hikes may be needed. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 67-71% probability of an October hike and about mid-90% odds of a December hike. In Australia, the RBA meets on September 28-29; all four major banks and most money-market traders expect a 25 basis point hike to 4.60%, a 15-year high, after Governor Michele Bullock said the jobs market is still too tight and putting upward pressure on wages, costs and inflation.

4. US LABOR AND HOUSING DATA STAY HOT
Initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 197,000 in the week ended September 19, near the lowest level since 1969. New single-family home sales rose 6.4% in August to a 684,000 annualized rate, the highest since December 2025. The Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.03% for the week, the highest since January 2025.

5. OIL JUMPS ON MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS; METALS MIXED
WTI crude for November delivery settled up 2.66% at USD94.61 per barrel; Brent for November settled up 3.41% at USD106.60, the highest front-month close since September 15, though some sources reported Brent around USD107.04. Houthi rebels claimed large-scale attacks on Saudi military targets in Jazan and on Aramco-linked sites; the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted six ballistic missiles. The Houthi claims have not been independently confirmed. French President Emmanuel Macron said France would deploy forces to protect Saudi energy facilities in Yanbu. Spot gold fell 0.3-0.4% to around USD4,271-4,274 per ounce; LME zinc rose 1.4% to USD3,955 per tonne after Trafigura-owned Nyrstar launched a strategic review of its Budel smelter.

6. US-IRAN TALKS, CORPORATE UPDATES IN FOCUS
US and Iranian negotiators in New York discussed a phased agreement under which Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the US would lift its economic blockade; Qatari officials are mediating, though according to some sources both sides are reluctant to give ground first. The US Senate narrowly rejected a war powers resolution demanding an end to the Iran war by 49 votes to 50, with reported war costs around USD43.5bn. Qualcomm and Apple extended their global patent licensing agreement from 2027; Apollo increased its net asset value loan to SoftBank to USD9.2bn to support AI investments; PepsiCo plans another price increase in late 2026 or early 2027.

7. RUBBER AND COFFEE RISE ON SUPPLY CONCERNS
TSR20 rubber on SGX rose 2.87-3.35%, with the October contract at 249.80 US cents per kg; ANRPC projects a 2026 global natural rubber deficit of about 280,000 tonnes. Vietnam domestic coffee prices rose 1,000 VND per kg to 92,200-93,000 VND per kg, while pepper prices were stable at 136,000-140,000 VND per kg. LME copper was roughly flat at USD14,621 per tonne.

Worth watching today: Progress of US-Iran talks in New York, which may affect oil prices and broader risk sentiment.
*Information compiled for reference, reflecting multiple sources at the time of publication.*