Wall Street falls, oil jumps to $116 on Oct 26, 2026

1. US STOCKS FALL, ENERGY SHINES
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 652.82 points, or 1.23%, to 52,215.16; the S&P 500 lost 39.75 points, or 0.52%, to 7,623.68; the Nasdaq Composite lost 53.52 points, or 0.21%, to 25,955.34. The S&P 500 energy sector rose 2.5% to a record high; telecom shares fell after reports that SpaceX is in talks to lease 80,000 US cell towers. Apple briefly overtook Nvidia as the world's most valuable company.

2. OIL SURGES THEN COOLS IN ASIAN TRADE
Brent settled at 116.72 USD/bbl, up 3.14%, the highest since April 29; WTI settled at 103.27 USD/bbl, up 3.8%. Buying was driven by Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and Red Sea shipping lanes, a reported oil spill in the UAE, and rising US-Iran war risk. Early on Oct 26, oil opened sharply lower: Brent -1.12% to around 110 USD, WTI -1.29% to 101.94 USD.

3. GOLD HITS THREE-MONTH LOW, BASE METALS RECOVER
COMEX gold futures fell 1.24% to 4,010 USD/oz; spot gold fell 0.69% to 3,997.82 USD/oz, a three-month low, before moving back above 4,000 USD early Oct 26. On the LME, zinc +2.06%, copper +1.56%, tin +1.35%, aluminium +1.03%; nickel -1.58%.

4. US YIELDS RISE, EURO PRESSURED BY FRANCE
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 3.7 bps to 4.99%, with some sources citing a close at 5.007%. The dollar index rose 0.14% to 101.76; EUR/USD fell 0.21% to 1.1191 on French fiscal and bond-market turmoil. France avoided a Moody's downgrade, keeping Aa3 with a negative outlook; the French 10-year yield stood at 5.04%, with its debt risk premium at the highest since the 2011 euro-zone sovereign debt crisis.

5. ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS MIXED
ASX 200 futures fell 43 points (-0.49%); CBA rose 4.3% while materials fell 3.8%, with BHP -3.6%. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.89%; the Hang Seng rose 0.69% to 23,093.37; the Hang Seng Tech rose 2.05%. South Korea's KOSPI ended higher after earlier shedding up to 4%; Goldman Sachs cut its 12-month KOSPI target by 25% to 9,000.

6. CENTRAL BANK WEEK AHEAD
The Fed meets Wednesday and is expected to hold the funds target at 3.75-4.00%; markets price only about 5-10% odds of an October hike and roughly 71% odds of a December hike. The ECB meets Thursday and is expected to hold at 2.50%; a December hike to 2.75% is about 75% priced. The BOJ meets Friday and is expected to hold at 1.25%; swaps price about 75% odds of a December hike to 1.50%. The BOC and RBNZ meet Wednesday and are expected to hike 25 bps each.

7. MACRO DATA MIXED
The US October S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI rose to 56, a 53-month high; US consumer sentiment slipped to 48, a five-month low. The eurozone composite PMI eased to 51.9, a four-month low and below expectations. In China, final consumption contributed 46.7% of GDP growth in Q3; fiscal revenue rose 5.1% y/y to about 17.23 trillion CNY in the first three quarters.

8. CHINA LIQUIDITY AND COMMODITY MOVES
The PBOC conducted a 700 billion CNY one-year MLF operation on Oct 26 to keep banking liquidity ample. The Ministry of Finance will accelerate front-loading part of the 2027 new local government debt quota. The Dalian Commodity Exchange raised the LH2701 live-hog futures margin from 8% to 10% effective Oct 27.

9. GEOPOLITICS: US-IRAN, HOUTHIS, RUSSIA-UKRAINE
President Donald Trump said the US 'will not strike Iran today', while saying the US could take all of Iran's oil and that the Strait of Hormuz is under its control; Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran to de-escalate. Saudi Arabia intercepted Houthi drones and a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh; the Houthis claimed attacks on seven Saudi targets including Aramco facilities. Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire in Oleshky from Oct 27; Ukraine confirmed US-Ukraine-Russia technical-level talks planned for November.

10. CORPORATE: AMEX, AMAZON, SK HYNIX
American Express reported Q3 revenue +9% to 14.5 billion USD, about 2% below estimates; adjusted EPS +13% to 4.68 USD; it is cutting about 3,500 roles with a 336 million USD restructuring charge. Amazon's CEO said AWS cloud capacity is sold out through 2027, with AI business annualized revenue above 25 billion USD. SK Hynix shelved plans for a US listing of flash unit Solidigm.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY: Fed policy decision on October 28.

*This summary is for reference only and reflects multiple sources at the time of publication.*