Serbia changes hands, Israel votes, Brent at $114.7 – October 2026

BRIEFING

1. Student-led list wins about 52.65% of the vote in Serbia's parliamentary election, and Aleksandar Vučić concedes after more than 14 years in power.
2. Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan meet Iranian leaders in Tehran on October 26, as the Houthis claim strikes on Riyadh airport and the East-West oil pipeline.
3. Brent crude falls about $2 to $114.7 a barrel, still near a six-month high.
4. Israelis vote today, and polls show neither bloc firmly at the 61-of-120 seat threshold.
5. A local ceasefire around Oleshky in southern Ukraine takes effect in the early hours of October 27, as Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv.
6. Lula wins Brazil's presidential runoff with 51.8%, and Bolsonaro's camp demands the result be annulled.
7. Ebola in Congo passes 9,000 confirmed cases, according to the US CDC.
8. North Korea moves self-propelled howitzers to its western front line facing the South, according to South Korea's SBS.

1. HOUTHIS FIRE AT SAUDI ARABIA AS FOUR NATIONS MEET IN TEHRAN, BRENT AT $114.7

Officials from Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan met Iranian leaders in Tehran on October 26 and agreed to keep talking, according to Al Jazeera. The same day the Houthis, the Iran-aligned group in Yemen, said they hit Riyadh airport and pumping stations on the East-West oil pipeline. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted the attacks.

It was the first high-level contact between Iran and the three countries since they signed the "Mecca Pact", a mutual defense deal, in August. Riyadh says the aim is to stop the fighting from resuming. The claim that pumping stations were hit comes only from the Houthis, and Saudi Arabia has not confirmed any damage. Egypt's parliament has approved military support for Saudi Arabia's defense. At sea, US Central Command says it has escorted more than 1.5 billion barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil reflects the tug of war. Reuters reports Brent fell about $2 to $114.7 a barrel, with WTI near $100.7. Some outlets quote Brent above $116, a gap that comes down to when prices were taken.

The war involving the US, Israel and Iran began on February 28. A temporary deal brokered by Pakistan and Qatar in June collapsed into renewed fighting. On October 23, President Donald Trump said he might strike Iran again, and Tehran said it will not negotiate with Washington until its demands are met.

Looking ahead: Riyadh wants to protect its oil infrastructure without being dragged into direct confrontation. Tehran wants its ports unblocked and a seat at any negotiating table. Washington wants cheaper oil before the November 3 midterms. Pakistan and Qatar want to remain guarantors because the role raises their standing. The most likely path is diplomacy running alongside low-level fighting, with Brent hovering near current levels. A worse turn would come from a new US strike or real damage to the East-West pipeline, which would make it hard to keep oil below $120. A better one would need Tehran to publicly accept a proposal backed by Pakistan or Qatar. The Tehran meeting has one weak point: the Houthis were not at the table, so missiles can still fly while foreign ministers talk.

2. STUDENT LIST WINS SERBIA'S ELECTION WITH 52.65%, VUČIĆ CONCEDES

With about 97% of polling stations counted, the electoral commission RIK says the Student List has 52.65% and Vučić's bloc 39.2%. Two independent monitoring groups estimate the students hold about 140 of 250 seats and Vučić's camp about 103. Turnout was 68.8%. Euronews, Balkan Insight and Al Jazeera report the same result, and Vučić has publicly conceded.

The student movement grew out of the 2024 collapse of a canopy at Novi Sad railway station, which killed 16 people and which protesters blame on corruption. Vučić resigned as president in September to run for prime minister. The students have not named a prime ministerial candidate and have no experience governing. Overnight, according to Russia's Izvestia, a crowd stormed the Belgrade offices of the pro-government channel Informer and attacked its editor. That report comes so far only from a Russian state-aligned outlet.

Looking ahead: The handover is likely to be relatively smooth, but a coalition without a clear leader often struggles to stay united once real decisions arrive. If no government forms after four to six weeks, that would signal trouble. The European Union gains a chance to pull Belgrade closer, and Moscow loses a once-friendly partner.

3. ISRAEL VOTES AS EISENKOT'S BLOC LEADS BUT FALLS SHORT OF 61 SEATS

Israelis vote for parliament today, October 27, in the first election since the October 7, 2023 attack. Four polls published on October 25 by Maariv, Channel 13, KAN and Channel 12 put former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud. On average the opposition bloc has about 54 seats and Netanyahu's about 49.5, against a threshold of 61 of 120. Arab parties, at about 14.5 seats, could prove decisive. The Israeli army sealed the West Bank for the whole voting day after an attack in Hebron.

Israeli polls have missed by several seats before, and the 3.25% cutoff means one small party clearing or missing it can change the majority math. Hong Kong's The Standard wrote that Netanyahu hinted at renewed war with Iran if he wins, but that claim has only one source so far.

Looking ahead: Netanyahu needs a majority to stay in power and fend off his court cases. Eisenkot must build a broad coalition and may have to lean partly on Arab parties, which many right-wing parties would find hard to accept. Weeks of coalition talks, or even another election, look likely. How the next government forms will shape policy on Iran and Gaza. Early results are expected in the early hours of October 28, Vietnam time.

4. OLESHKY CEASEFIRE TAKES EFFECT, YET BALLISTIC MISSILES STILL HIT KYIV

A local ceasefire in Oleshky, a Russian-held town in southern Ukraine, took effect in the early hours of October 27 to let aid in. The office of US First Lady Melania Trump says she brokered the deal, and both Russia and Ukraine confirmed it, according to Euronews and the Washington Post. Russia's Defense Ministry called it a "regime of silence" to prepare a humanitarian operation, per Izvestia. The UN says up to 2,000 people are trapped. An aid convoy is expected to enter on Thursday, October 29.

At the same time, Russian ballistic missiles struck Kyiv. Ukrainian officials say the Nam Bridge over the Dnipro and metro infrastructure were damaged, some hospital windows were blown out, and at least one person died, per early figures. On the evening of October 26, a missile wave hit a university campus in Kyiv, killing 1 and injuring more than 10. President Volodymyr Zelensky said it was an attack on civilians with no military target nearby. Russian media say the strikes hit legitimate targets. Casualty figures and the nature of the targets rest mostly on the warring sides' own accounts, without independent monitoring on the ground.

Russia is stepping up winter strikes on the power grid, and Ukraine says electricity is restricted in 6 regions. A small humanitarian truce is the only kind of deal both sides are accepting, so it is both a goodwill signal and a test.

Looking ahead: If the convoy gets in smoothly, the Kyiv strikes more likely belonged to a plan already in motion than an attempt to wreck the deal. If the truce collapses and each side blames the other, the credibility of the US-led mediation channel will suffer.

5. LULA WINS FOURTH TERM WITH 51.8%, BOLSONARO CAMP DEMANDS ANNULMENT

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the October 25 runoff with 51.8%, about 4.4 million votes ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro, according to CBS News and the electoral court. Bolsonaro's side has not conceded and asked for the result to be annulled, citing a Supreme Court justice's two-hour extension of voting hours. Bolsonaro's own camp had also asked for longer hours, which weakens the legal argument. The Standard in Hong Kong reports Trump said, without evidence, that the election looked rigged, but CBS says only that Trump said he was watching, so that detail remains unsettled.

With such a wide margin and no fraud reports from observers, the result is likely to stand. The risk lies in protests and prolonged litigation in Latin America's largest economy.

6. HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS MARCH IN FRANCE, MORE THAN 1,300 ARRESTED

Protests over school budgets and prices drew hundreds of thousands in France, with more than 1,300 arrests, according to Democracy Now. Another report cites 1,800 arrests, but that figure belongs to the October 17 protests and cannot be combined. Student unions rejected new concessions from Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, per Le Monde, and called a national strike for November 5. In Italy, thousands of young people marched for pay, jobs and housing, with at least 45 arrests. In Bilbao, Spain, clashes with police after an anti-fascist march left at least 19 people detained, per Izvestia. Anger over the cost of living is spreading among young people across several large European economies just as energy is expensive. More protests are likely in the coming weeks.

7. EBOLA IN CONGO TOPS 9,000 CONFIRMED CASES, SECOND-LARGEST OUTBREAK EVER

According to the US CDC, as of October 15 the Democratic Republic of Congo had 9,235 confirmed cases and 4,444 deaths from the Bundibugyo strain. A report on October 25 cited 9,735 cases and 4,690 deaths. The numbers differ because of update timing and because Congo has removed some suspected cases. The outbreak has spread to seven provinces, with a few cases in Uganda, Kenya and France. WHO and ECDC say a response team in eastern Congo was ambushed, turning a health crisis into a security problem. The US bars passengers who were in Congo within 21 days from commercial flights. The risk of wide spread outside Africa is low, but not zero.

8. US APPEALS COURT LETS ICE HOLD IMMIGRANTS WITHOUT BAIL

The US Fifth Circuit ruled that immigrants held by ICE have no constitutional right to bail, and the Supreme Court is expected to review the case. Reuters also reports that former FBI Director James Comey has been indicted a third time over his handling of classified material in 2016. Democracy Now reports Trump asked the Justice Department to sue to block the Alaska Senate result if Senator Dan Sullivan loses, but that is a single-source report not yet verified. The developments add to a tense legal and political climate before the November 3 midterms.

9. NORTH KOREA PLACES SELF-PROPELLED HOWITZERS ALONG WESTERN FRONT FACING SOUTH

North Korea has moved self-propelled howitzers to its forward western front line, aimed at South Korea, according to South Korea's SBS. The move follows Kim Yo-jong's warning of new countermeasures along all borders. South Korean analysts see a show of force rather than attack preparation, but the report has a single source and neither Pyongyang nor Seoul has officially confirmed it.

NEXT 48–72 HOURS

The first marker is Israel's election result, with polls closing at 22:00 local time, or the early hours of October 28 in Hanoi. How Arab parties position themselves will show whether a government can be formed. On October 28–29, statements after the Tehran consultations and signals from Qatar will show whether Gulf diplomacy is advancing. On Thursday, October 29, the aid convoy is due to enter Oleshky, the same day the Bank of England and the ECB announce rate decisions. Throughout, watch whether Brent stays above or below $110 and whether there are new strikes on the East-West pipeline. In Serbia, the student bloc must pick a prime ministerial candidate, and in Brazil the question is whether Bolsonaro's camp files a formal challenge. November 3 is the US midterms, and November 5 is the strike day in France.

SOURCES

Event 1: Al Jazeera – Iran, Saudi, Türkiye and Pakistan agree to more talks amid Houthi attacks – https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/27/iran-saudi-turkiye-and-pakistan-agree-to-more-talks-amid-houthi-attacks
Event 1: Business Recorder (Reuters) – Oil slips but stays near six-month highs on Saudi attacks – https://www.brecorder.com/news/40445943/oil-slips-but-stays-near-six-month-highs-on-saudi-attacks
Event 1: Cornerstone Futures – Morning Highlights, Oct 26 – https://www.cornerstonefuturesllc.com/post/morning-highlights-houthis-claim-strikes-on-east-west-pipeline-pumping-stations-as-saudi-turkish-a
Event 2: Balkan Insight – Student list wins outright majority in Serbian parliamentary polls – https://balkaninsight.com/2026/10/26/student-list-wins-outright-majority-in-serbian-parliamentary-polls/bi/
Event 2: Euronews – Vučić concedes defeat in pivotal Serbian elections – https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/25/vucic-concedes-defeat-in-pivotal-serbian-elections-says-student-movement-has-won
Event 2: Izvestia – What happened on the night of October 27 – https://en.iz.ru/en/2191155/2026-10-27/what-happened-night-october-27-main-thing
Event 3: Jerusalem Post – Israel election 2026 – https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-912743
Event 3: Jewish Chronicle – JC poll tracker – https://www.thejc.com/news/israel/jc-poll-tracker-who-will-win-2026-israeli-elections-hj1ez8pl
Event 3: The Standard – Morning Recap October 27, 2026 – https://www.thestandard.com.hk/news/article/346587/Morning-Recap-October-27-2026
Event 4: Euronews – US-brokered ceasefire begins in Russian-occupied Oleshky as strikes hit Kyiv – https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/27/us-brokered-ceasefire-begins-in-russian-occupied-oleshky-as-strikes-hit-kyiv
Event 4: The Washington Post – Oleshky ceasefire and Kyiv strikes – https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/10/27/ukraine-russia-war-oleshky-ceasefire-kyiv-strikes/
Event 4: The Moscow Times – Oleshky ceasefire aid – https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/10/27/oleshky-kherson-ceasefire-aid-a86412
Event 5: CBS News – Brazil presidential runoff, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro – https://www.cbsnews.com/news/brazil-presidential-runoff-lula-flavio-bolsonaro/
Event 6: Democracy Now – Headlines Oct 26 – https://democracynow.org/2026/10/26/headlines
Event 6: Le Monde – Mobilisation étudiante, les syndicats rejettent les annonces du gouvernement – https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2026/10/26/mobilisation-etudiante-les-syndicats-rejettent-les-annonces-du-gouvernement_6361204_823448.html
Event 7: Contagion Live – Ebola outbreak in DRC tops 9,235 confirmed cases, CDC reports – https://www.contagionlive.com/view/ebola-outbreak-in-drc-tops-9235-confirmed-cases-cdc-reports
Event 7: WHO – Disease Outbreak News – https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON540
Event 8: Reuters – Comey faces third indictment over classified handling – https://www.reuters.com/world/us/comey-faces-third-indictment-over-classified-handling-2026-10-26/
Event 9: SBS – Morning Wide: Today's Major News (October 27, 2026) – https://news.sbs.co.kr/english/article.do?news_id=N1008816003