September 12 2026: US stocks rebound, inflation hot before Fed

1. US STOCKS REBOUND AFTER FOUR-SESSION LOSING STREAK. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 509.19 points, or 0.98%, to 52,573.29; the S&P 500 added 0.86% to 7,656.98; and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.96% to 26,333.04. For the week, the Dow fell 1.57%, the S&P 500 0.58% and the Nasdaq 0.66%. Dell Technologies jumped 12% to a record high after RBC Capital Markets initiated coverage with Outperform and a $640 target, citing an AI infrastructure capex cycle. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.81%; Qualcomm added 2.88%, Intel 2.61% and Amazon 1.94%.

2. US AUGUST INFLATION RUNS HOTTER THAN EXPECTED. CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year; gasoline rebounded 3.9% and accounted for more than a third of the monthly rise. Core CPI rose 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast and the biggest increase in four months.

3. MARKETS PRICE IN FED RATE HIKE NEXT WEEK. After the CPI report, markets assigned roughly 86-90% odds to a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting; money markets see at least three cumulative hikes by June 2026. According to some sources, Fed watcher Nick Timiraos wrote that investors have essentially concluded the Fed will deliver its first hike in three years, and one 25bp hike would not be enough to cool inflation. This is market pricing, not yet an official Fed decision.

4. US CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS FOR SECOND MONTH. The University of Michigan preliminary September index slipped to 47.8 from 51.7 in August. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0%, the highest since June; five-year expectations ticked up to 3.4%.

5. TREASURY YIELDS NEAR 5%, DOLLAR LITTLE CHANGED. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.974%, up from 4.783% a week earlier, while the 2-year yield hit 4.642%, its highest since July 2024. The US dollar index rose 0.07% to 99.122; EUR/USD fell to 1.1596, GBP/USD rose to 1.3525 and USD/JPY fell to 153.72. USD/KRW traded in the mid-1,340s. Bitcoin added 0.33% to about $77,061; Ethereum rose 2.8% to $2,512.

6. OIL PULLS BACK BUT NOTCHES BIG WEEKLY GAINS. WTI October settled down 2.37% at $100.05 a barrel, while Brent November settled down 2.81% at $104.61 after earlier touching about $105. For the week, WTI rose nearly 10% and Brent gained around 8.6-8.7%, supported by the conflict involving Iran, Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia's precautionary shutdown of the East-West pipeline and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA warned global oil demand is set for its largest contraction since COVID.

7. GOLD AND SILVER RISE, BASE METALS MIXED. Spot gold rose about 0.7% to $4,349.08 per ounce; spot silver added about 1.4% to $64.4889 per ounce. Goldman Sachs reiterated a year-end 2026 gold forecast of $4,900 with net upside risk. On the LME, copper was little changed at $14,240/t; aluminium and nickel each fell 1.2%; tin fell 1.8%.

8. OTHER MARKETS AND CORPORATE NEWS. European equities advanced: FTSE 100 +0.39%, DAX +0.82% and CAC 40 +0.78%; in Asia, Nikkei 225 fell 1.93% and KOSPI fell 1.76%. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett defended President Trump's $5,000 checks proposal. SpaceX plans to deploy its first V3 Starlink satellites on a Starship test flight as early as next week. BMO Capital Markets initiated Lululemon at Underperform with a $70 price target.

Key thing to watch today: The FOMC meeting on September 15-16 and whether the Fed delivers a 25-basis-point rate hike.
*Information compiled from multiple sources for reference at the time of publication.*