Fed hikes, US stocks mixed on September 20 2026

1. FED HIKES FOR FIRST TIME IN THREE YEARS
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, and Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone. CME FedWatch put the probability of another hike at the October FOMC meeting at 55.4%, up from 42.5% a week earlier and 7.2% a month earlier. The move pushed Treasury yields higher and reinforced expectations of tighter global financial conditions.

2. WALL STREET MIXED, SEMICONDUCTORS RALLY
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 95 points, or 0.18%, to 51,682; the S&P 500 rose 0.17% to 7,650; the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.39% to 26,522; and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China index rebounded 0.76% to 5,787. Friday was a quadruple-witching settlement day, with Citadel Securities estimating about USD7 trillion in options notional expiring, among the largest on record. Nvidia rose 1.34%, Broadcom 2.97%, AMD 2.70% and Micron 3.92%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained 2.78%. Netflix fell 4.7% after a Wells Fargo Securities downgrade, while Meta lost 2.4% and IBM dropped 3.5%. Bitcoin topped USD81,000; Strategy, Coinbase and Robinhood surged 16.4%, 11.7% and 9.1% respectively.

3. TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TOUCHES 5%
The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.0064%, up 7.6 basis points, its highest since 2007; the 2-year yield rose 8.13 basis points to 4.7454%. This reflects expectations of further Fed tightening and may weigh on growth stocks while supporting the dollar.

4. BANK OF JAPAN HIKES TO 1.25%
The BoJ raised its overnight call rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% and projected CPI inflation easing back to around 2% in the latter half of its July 2026 outlook period. The move aligns with a broader global tightening trend and may affect yen flows and short-term exchange-rate positioning.

5. US AND GERMAN DATA SEND MIXED SIGNALS
US August industrial production was flat at 0.0%, missing expectations of a 0.3% rise; manufacturing output fell 0.3%; capacity utilization was 76.3%. The Conference Board leading index slipped 0.1% to 99.5, its first monthly decline since March 2026. Germany's August PPI rose 4.6% year-on-year, above the 3.9% forecast, and 1.1% month-on-month, signaling persistent price pressure in Europe.

6. OIL FALLS FOR THIRD STRAIGHT SESSION
WTI October settled down 1.58% at USD100.30 a barrel; Brent November fell 0.91% to USD103.87, after Saudi Arabia suspended some crude sales to Europe, though supply buffers were still seen as adequate. For the week, Brent fell about 0.7% while WTI rose about 0.2%.

7. GOLD AND COPPER EXTEND GAINS
Spot gold rose 0.9% to USD4,378.63 an ounce; spot silver rose 1.6% to USD66.2593; Goldman Sachs cut its year-end gold target to USD4,650 from USD4,900. LME copper rose 0.2% to USD14,521.50 a tonne, marking its 11th weekly gain in 12 weeks.

8. COFFEE REBOUNDS, RUBBER MIXED
London Robusta for November 2026 rose USD5 to USD3,396 a tonne; New York Arabica for December 2026 rose 4 US cents per pound, or 1.45%, to 280.5 cents. ICE certified Arabica stocks rose to 258,415 bags, the highest in about 1.5 months; Brazil's 2026-27 coffee exports are forecast at a record 49.1 million bags. Rubber was mixed: SHFE contracts rose 0.59-0.61%, SGX TSR20 fell, and TOCOM's September 2026 contract dropped 11.09% to 462.60 yen/kg.

9. KOSPI SLIPS, USD/VND CENTRAL RATE STEADY
KOSPI closed the week at 6,894.23, down 0.23%; foreign and retail investors were net sellers while institutions were net buyers. VKOSPI fell 5.88 points to 43.56, while KOSPI200 night futures rose 0.22%. In Vietnam, the State Bank of Vietnam kept the USD/VND central rate unchanged at 25,637 dong; the DXY dollar index rose 1.10% on the week to 100.22.

What to watch today: How Asian markets absorb the Fed and BoJ rate decisions, alongside the latest US industrial production data.

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