Morning Brief September 21 2026: Fed Hikes, Oil Slides

1. FED DELIVERS FIRST HIKE SINCE 2023
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% at its September meeting; the dot plot signaled one more 25bp hike expected in 2026. CME FedWatch placed the odds of another hike in October at about 55%-56.5%. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation remains too high and price pressures have spread beyond oil into services.

2. BOJ HIKES BUT YEN WEAKENS
The Bank of Japan lifted its key rate 25bp to 1.25%, the highest in 31 years, in a 7-2 split vote. The yen fell despite the hike; Japanese authorities reportedly conducted a rate check, a possible precursor to intervention. Japan is on holiday through Thursday, which may thin liquidity.

3. US STOCKS MIXED, CHIP SECTOR LEADS
On Friday, the Dow fell 0.18% to 51,682.64, the S&P 500 added 0.17% to 7,650.50, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.39% to 26,522.55. The Philadelphia chip index gained nearly 3%, with Micron +3.92%, SanDisk +10.99% and Nvidia +1.34%, while Qualcomm fell 5.82% and Dell dropped 3.3%. US futures edged higher early Monday.

4. WARREN BUFFETT STEPS DOWN AS BERKSHIRE CHAIR
Warren Buffett stepped down as Berkshire Hathaway chairman effective immediately, becoming chairman emeritus while remaining a director. His son Howard G. Buffett was elected chairman. The move signals a governance transition at the conglomerate, though Warren Buffett retains oversight.

5. EUROPE FALLS WHILE ASIA RISES
Germany's DAX 30 fell 1.6%, the UK FTSE 100 declined 1.45% and Euro Stoxx 50 lost 1.37%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.60%, Hang Seng Tech gained 2.20%; Lenovo jumped 9% to a record market cap above HK$460 billion. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.94%, Shenzhen added 1.72% and ChiNext gained 2.25% on turnover around 2.08 trillion yuan.

6. OIL EASES AS GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FADES
WTI futures fell 1.81% to $95.47 a barrel and Brent fell 1.08% to $98.85 on Friday; early Monday Brent traded around $104 and WTI near $95.87. Saudi Aramco told at least two European refiners they will not receive contracted crude next month after an attack on the Red Sea pipeline. Oil and LNG flows through Hormuz hit a six-month high as US naval protection and mine clearance advanced.

7. GOLD AND COPPER ADVANCE
Spot gold rose 0.84% to $4,378.23 an ounce, silver gained 1.61% to $66.24; COMEX gold added 0.37% to $4,415.90. COMEX copper rose 0.43% to $6.615 per pound, up 2.25% for the week; the Yangshan copper premium reached $121 a tonne, the highest since November 2022 on strong Chinese demand.

8. US TREASURY YIELDS TOUCH 5%
The 10-year US Treasury yield closed just below 5% at 4.990%-4.997% after touching 5.014%; the 2-year yield was around 4.741%-4.752%. The French-German 10-year yield spread widened to 100bps for the first time since July 2012. The dollar index was nearly flat at 100.21 but rose 1.14% for the week; USD/JPY added 0.59% to 156.88.

9. US-CHINA CONSULTATIONS BEGIN IN NEW YORK
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng opened economic and trade consultations in New York, covering trade, investment, artificial intelligence and the Iran issue. The meeting comes ahead of the Trump-Xi summit expected later this week and is viewed as a test of trade tensions.

10. IRAN SIGNALS TALKS, TRUMP KEEPS OPTIONS OPEN
Iran reportedly relayed seven conditions through Qatar; Trump said he remains open to meeting Iran's president at the UN General Assembly. Trump also claimed the Houthis agreed not to fight the US, while US embassies across the Middle East issued security alerts citing escalation risks. These statements have not been officially confirmed.

11. CHINA LPR UNCHANGED, FISCAL REVENUE RISES
China kept its one-year LPR at 3.00% and five-year-plus LPR at 3.50% for a 16th straight month. January-August fiscal revenue reached 15.6633 trillion yuan, up 5.7% year-on-year; securities stamp duty rose 82% to 216 billion yuan on active trading.

12. IMF FLAGS GLOBAL INFLATION AND DEBT RISKS
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said growth near 3% is resilient but risks include stubborn inflation, higher debt-service costs and AI investment; new projections are due in October. Germany's DIW raised its 2026 growth forecast to 1.2% from 0.4% but expects momentum to slow in the second half.

Watch today: US-China consultations in New York and signals ahead of the Trump-Xi summit later this week.

*Information compiled for reference, reflecting multiple sources at the time of publication.*