US stocks rebound strongly, oil slides on November 10, 2026

1. US STOCKS REBOUND ON TECH AND OIL. US equities jumped sharply on November 9 as tech shares recovered and oil prices slid. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,104.02 points, or 2.15%, to 52,389.75; the S&P 500 added 173.08 points, or 2.35%, to 7,549.94; the Nasdaq Composite gained 673.71 points, or 2.74%, to 25,253.14, its strongest session since July 30. The VIX dropped 22.31% to 19.92. AMD rose 13.2%, Broadcom added 8.8%, Tesla gained 5.5%. Nvidia bucked the rally, falling about 4.2-4.3% to its lowest close since April 7 after the board announced an independent investigation into reports that CEO Jensen Huang had been targeted by a foreign intelligence effort; the company said it had no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised.

2. EUROPEAN AND ASIAN EQUITIES BROADLY HIGHER. The STOXX Europe 600 rose 1.26% to 656.52; Germany's DAX gained 1.73% to 26,267.19; France's CAC 40 rose 1.16% to 8,233.30; the UK FTSE 100 added 1.02% to 10,782.87; Italy's FTSE MIB rose 2.69% to 51,399.88. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose about 3.5%, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index advanced 2% after a 4.6% fall the prior week. Mainland China was mixed: the Shanghai Composite edged up 0.32%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext each fell 0.27%; in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index slipped 0.13% to 24,448.95, with Meituan down 6.53%. Vietnam's VN-Index fell 0.64% to 1,714.32, while foreign investors net sold nearly VND 900 billion, the highest in three weeks.

3. OIL DROPS TO THREE-MONTH LOW AFTER IRAN RHETORIC. President Donald Trump said US military action against Iran seemed not to be very necessary, after which Brent crude fell about 5.4-5.9% to roughly 91.3-92.6 USD per barrel; WTI fell about 4.4% to roughly 85.5-86.9 USD per barrel, depending on source. Morgan Stanley noted prompt Brent flipped to a discount versus nearby futures, signaling soft physical demand; JPMorgan estimated a global oil surplus of about 1.4 million barrels per day in October. OPEC October crude output rose by 1.38 million barrels per day month-on-month to 22.87 million bpd, driven by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories fell to 279.5 million barrels, the lowest since October 1982.

4. GOLD GAINS AS DOLLAR WEAKENS. Spot gold rose about 1.72-2.11% to 4,140-4,141 USD per ounce; spot silver gained 3.48% to 53.43 USD per ounce. The US Dollar Index fell about 0.54-0.61% to 101.66-101.67. China's central bank increased gold reserves by about 25.8 tonnes in October, the largest monthly addition in three years, according to the World Gold Council. Investors are watching US inflation data this week for signals on the Federal Reserve's next move.

5. FED CAUTIOUS, MARKETS LEAN TOWARD DECEMBER HIKE. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the policy rate is probably roughly neutral or slightly below neutral, that risks are tilted toward inflation, and that policy should proceed cautiously; he did not signal a December move. CME FedWatch showed markets pricing about an 82-84% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, after the target range was held at 3.75-4.00% in October. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose about 1.6-1.9 basis points to 4.878-4.886%, while the 2-year yield rose 4.1 basis points to 4.574%.

6. MACRO: US DEFICIT WIDENS, CHINA DATA MIXED. The US federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 reached 2.0 trillion USD, up 217 billion USD from FY2025, equal to 6.2% of GDP; federal debt held by the public hit 100% of GDP, the highest since 1946. In China, October CPI rose 0.7% year-on-year and PPI rose 5.7% year-on-year. The PBOC raised the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio from 4% to 6% to slow yuan appreciation. China's October trade data were due on November 10; a Reuters poll had expected exports up about 33% y/y and imports up about 32% y/y, but actual figures were not confirmed in the sources reviewed.

7. GEOPOLITICS: IRAN AND UKRAINE TALKS IN FOCUS. President Trump reiterated that Iran will never have nuclear weapons and said he sees positive momentum toward ending the Iran conflict, while the blockade of Iran and the Iron Gate task force operation continue. Some sources reported that Qatar and Pakistan proposed a framework to restart substantive US-Iran talks; Washington reportedly accepted Iranian uranium enrichment up to 3.67% and Tehran reportedly agreed, though Iranian officials cautioned Tehran would not negotiate unless Washington acts on seven conditions. US, Russian and Ukrainian delegations were set to meet in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11; Russian and Ukrainian sides were reported to be participating in good faith in US-brokered talks, with some private flexibility on territorial issues, but this remained unconfirmed officially.

Điều cần theo dõi hôm nay: China's October trade data, US inflation data this week, and the US-Russia-Ukraine meeting in Abu Dhabi.
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